ASSESSING THE RISKS OF A FUTURE RAPID LARGE SEA LEVEL RISE: A REVIEW

Our aim is to make an appropriate characterization and interpretation of the risk problem of rapid large sea level rise that reflects the very large uncertainty in present day knowledge concerning this possibility, and that will be useful in informing discussion about risk management approaches. We consider mainly the potential collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet as the source of such a sea level rise. Our review, characterization and interpretation of the risk makes us conclude that the risk of a rapid large sea level rise is characterized by potentially catastrophic consequences and high epistemic uncertainty; effective risk management must involve highly adaptive management regimes, vulnerability reduction, and prompt development of capabilities for precautionary reduction of climate change forcings.sea level rise, West Antarctic ice sheet, climate change, adaptive management, epistemic uncertainty, risk management arenas, vulnerability

Faint Infrared Flares from the Microquasar GRS 1915+105

We present simultaneous infrared and X-ray observations of the Galactic microquasar GRS 1915+105 using the Palomar 5-m telescope and Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer on July 10, 1998 UT. Over the course of 5 hours, we observed 6 faint infrared (IR) flares with peak amplitudes of $\sim 0.3-0.6$ mJy and durations of $\sim 500-600$ seconds. These flares are associated with X-ray soft-dip/soft-flare cycles, as opposed to the brighter IR flares associated with X-ray hard-dip/soft-flare cycles seen in August 1997 by Eikenberry et al. (1998). Interestingly, the IR flares begin {\it before} the X-ray oscillations, implying an ``outside-in'' origin of the IR/X-ray cycle. We also show that the quasi-steady IR excess in August 1997 is due to the pile-up of similar faint flares. We discuss the implications of this flaring behavior for understanding jet formation in microquasars.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

How risky are risk factors? An analysis of prenatal risk factors in patients participating in the congenital upper limb differences registry

PURPOSE: Risk factors for congenital upper limb differences (CoULDs) are often studied at the general population level. The CoULD registry provides a unique opportunity to study prenatal risk factors within a large patient sample. METHODS: All patients enrolled between June 2014 and March 2020 in the prospective CoULD registry, a national multicenter database of patients diagnosed with a CoULD, were included in the analysis. We analyzed self-reported, prenatal risk factors, including maternal smoking, alcohol use, recreational drug use, prescription drug use, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), and gestational hypertension. The outcome measures included comorbid medical conditions, proximal involvement of limb difference, bilateral involvement, and additional orthopedic conditions. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the effect of the risk factors, controlling for sex and the presence of a named syndrome. RESULTS: In total, 2,410 patients were analyzed, of whom 72% (1,734) did not have a self-reported risk factor. Among the 29% (676) who did have at least 1 risk factor, prenatal maternal prescription drug use was the most frequent (376/2,410; 16%). Maternal prescription drug use was associated with increased odds of patient medical comorbidities (odds ratio [OR] = 1.43, CONCLUSIONS: Most caregivers (72%) did not report a risk factor during enrollment. However, reporting a risk factor was associated with patient medical and orthopedic comorbidities. Of note, GDM alone significantly increased the odds of both these outcome measures along with proximal limb differences. These findings highlight the ill-defined etiology of CoULDs but suggest that prenatal risk factors, especially GDM, are associated with a higher degree of morbidity. TYPE OF STUDY/LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic III

Evolution and environment of the eastern linear pottery culture: A case study in the site of Polgár-Piócási-Dűlő

A salvage excavation preceding a major investment project was conducted in 2006–2007, during which associated settlement features of a Middle Neolithic, Eastern Linear Pottery Culture (Alföld Linearbandkeramik – ALBK) were uncovered in an area called Piócási-dűlő on the eastern outskirts of Polgár. The features of the ALBK settlement date from two periods. The cluster of multi-functional pits yielding a rich assortment of finds, the handful of post-holes and an unusual ritual well found in the southern part of the investigated area formed one unit from the earliest phase of the Middle Neolithic (ALBK I). The settlement’s other occupation can be assigned to the late phase of the Middle Neolithic (ALBK IV). Five houseplans representing the remains of timber-framed buildings outlined a distinct area with three multi-functional pits. Associated with the above features were 8 burials. The preliminary archaeobotanical results from Polgár–Piócási-dűlő are based on the plant material found within the sediments of 11 archaeological structures, which mainly represent pits and a welI. It can be stated that the natural environment offered habitats in which oak trees dominated in the local vegetation, forming floodplain forests and wooded steppes. They also provided food in the form of fruits and formed an optimal habitat for domestic animals. Arable fields were probably also established in the vicinity of the settlements, suggested by findings of macroscopic plant remains that represented cultivated species. In both settlement phases lithic production activities are manifested both by the local on-site lithic production and – most importantly – by the presence of imported, mainly mesolocal, raw materials that point to contacts with deposit areas, or off-site preliminary working of obsidian and limnoquartzites. The kit of harvesting tools and a large number of grinding stones – especially in the younger phase – for the preparation of plant food suggest a major role of plant cultivation

Características químicas de um latossolo adubado com uréia e cloreto de potássio em ambiente protegido

A produção de vegetais mais sadios e de boa qualidade e o fornecimento contínuo no mercado são fatores que têm determinado a adoção do sistema de cultivo protegido por um número maior de produtores. Porém, devido ao pouco conhecimento sobre o manejo do solo nessas condições, tem-se aplicado altas doses de fertilizantes, ocasionando problemas de salinidade e desequilíbrio nutricional. O objetivo desse trabalho foi avaliar os efeitos da aplicação da uréia e do cloreto de potássio nas características químicas de um LATOSSOLO VERMELHO Destrófico, principalmente nos índices de acidez e saturação em potássio. O N e o K foram aplicados em cobertura, nas doses equivalentes de 13,3 e 39,9 g m-2 de N e 5,5 e 16,6 g m-2 de K, em esquema fatorial (2x2+1), com tratamento adicional, sem a aplicação dos nutrientes. Cultivou-se pimentão, cultivar Mayata, em condições de ambiente protegido, durante 34 semanas. Após o pegamento das mudas, foi aplicado 1/6 dos nutrientes a cada dez dias. Ao final do ciclo, as formas de N nítrico e N amoniacal representaram melhor as doses do nutriente aplicados ao solo e não houve acidificação. As raízes tiveram significativo crescimento após a aplicação de N, enquanto que o aumento da dose de K, aplicado como KCl, prejudicou o crescimento radicular, provavelmente associado à alta concentração de K no solo e possíveis efeitos salinos, correspondendo a mais de 5,0 mmol c dm-3 e mais que 5,3% de saturação do K no complexo de troca, na camada superficial do solo